Subsidence season · 16 September 2026
All 10 of the top clay-risk cities in our index are in drought
Subsidence in the UK mostly comes from clay soils drying out and shrinking. England has just had its hottest summer on record (provisionally) and its driest July on record, and every city in the top clay tier of our UK Subsidence Risk Index now sits inside an area the Environment Agency has officially placed in drought.
Headline findings
- 10 of 10 cities in the index's top clay tier (Very High, High or Moderate–High shrink-swell susceptibility) are in drought areas: London, Chelmsford, Cambridge, Luton, Milton Keynes, Oxford, Peterborough, Portsmouth, Reading and Southampton.
- 32 of 44 English cities in the index are in drought areas. The rest are in prolonged dry weather status.
- England had its hottest summer on record (provisional) at 18.2°C, 2.5°C above the 1991-2020 average, with 64% of average summer rainfall and its driest July on record (Met Office).
- The average home subsidence claim reached a record £20,000 between April and June 2026, before England's driest July on record (ABI).
Last updated: 16 September 2026. Editorially reviewed: 16 September 2026.
Why this summer matters for subsidence
The Association of British Insurers puts it plainly: subsidence is most commonly caused by soil losing moisture and shrinking, often during prolonged dry weather. Shrink-swell is a property of clay soils, which is why the index ranks cities by British Geological Survey clay shrink-swell susceptibility.
Three things lined up in 2026.
- Heat. The Met Office recorded a provisional UK summer mean of 16.5°C, beating the 2025 record of 16.1°C. Temperatures peaked at 38.1°C at Kew Gardens on 13 August 2026.
- Dry ground. In the week of 17 to 23 July 2026, the Environment Agency reported soil moisture deficits at record levels for the time of year across the north-east, central, south-east and south-west of England.
- Drought. The Environment Agency moved over half of England into drought on 29 July 2026. By the week of 4 to 10 September 2026, 10 of its 14 areas were in drought, temporary use bans covered 30 million people and reservoir storage stood at 56.9%.
Insurers were already seeing the cost. Home insurers paid £72m for domestic subsidence claims from April to June 2026, and the average claim was more than £2,000 higher than a year earlier. Those figures cover the quarter before July, England's driest on record.
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Run a free previewEvery city: clay risk and drought status
Ranked as in the index, highest clay susceptibility first. Drought status is the Environment Agency's for the week of 4 to 10 September 2026.
| # | City | Clay band | Environment Agency area | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LondonGreater London | Very High | Hertfordshire and North London | Drought |
| 2 | ChelmsfordEssex | High | East Anglia | Drought |
| 3 | CambridgeCambridgeshire | Moderate–High | East Anglia | Drought |
| 4 | LutonBedfordshire | Moderate–High | Hertfordshire and North London | Drought |
| 5 | Milton KeynesBuckinghamshire | Moderate–High | East Anglia | Drought |
| 6 | OxfordOxfordshire | Moderate–High | Thames | Drought |
| 7 | PeterboroughCambridgeshire | Moderate–High | Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire | Drought |
| 8 | PortsmouthHampshire | Moderate–High | Solent and South Downs | Drought |
| 9 | ReadingBerkshire | Moderate–High | Thames | Drought |
| 10 | SouthamptonHampshire | Moderate–High | Solent and South Downs | Drought |
| 11 | BirminghamWest Midlands | Moderate | West Midlands | Drought |
| 12 | BristolBristol | Moderate | Wessex | Drought |
| 13 | CoventryWest Midlands | Moderate | West Midlands | Drought |
| 14 | DerbyDerbyshire | Moderate | East Midlands | Drought |
| 15 | LeicesterLeicestershire | Moderate | East Midlands | Drought |
| 16 | ManchesterGreater Manchester | Moderate | Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Cheshire | Prolonged dry weather |
| 17 | NorwichNorfolk | Moderate | East Anglia | Drought |
| 18 | WolverhamptonWest Midlands | Moderate | West Midlands | Drought |
| 19 | ChichesterWest Sussex | Moderate | Solent and South Downs | Drought |
| 20 | ElyCambridgeshire | Moderate | East Anglia | Drought |
| 21 | GloucesterGloucestershire | Moderate | West Midlands | Drought |
| 22 | GuildfordSurrey | Moderate | Thames | Drought |
| 23 | Kingston upon HullEast Yorkshire | Moderate | Yorkshire | Prolonged dry weather |
| 24 | NorthamptonNorthamptonshire | Moderate | Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire | Drought |
| 25 | ShrewsburyShropshire | Moderate | West Midlands | Drought |
| 26 | WorcesterWorcestershire | Moderate | West Midlands | Drought |
| 27 | YorkNorth Yorkshire | Moderate | Yorkshire | Prolonged dry weather |
| 28 | BradfordWest Yorkshire | Low–Moderate | Yorkshire | Prolonged dry weather |
| 29 | DoncasterSouth Yorkshire | Low–Moderate | Yorkshire | Prolonged dry weather |
| 30 | LeedsWest Yorkshire | Low–Moderate | Yorkshire | Prolonged dry weather |
| 31 | Newcastle upon TyneTyne and Wear | Low–Moderate | Northeast | Prolonged dry weather |
| 32 | NottinghamNottinghamshire | Low–Moderate | East Midlands | Drought |
| 33 | SalfordGreater Manchester | Low–Moderate | Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Cheshire | Prolonged dry weather |
| 34 | SheffieldSouth Yorkshire | Low–Moderate | Yorkshire | Prolonged dry weather |
| 35 | Stoke-on-TrentStaffordshire | Low–Moderate | West Midlands | Drought |
| 36 | SwanseaSouth Wales | Low–Moderate | Wales (Natural Resources Wales) | Not set by the EA |
| 37 | CarlisleCumbria | Low–Moderate | Cumbria and Lancashire | Prolonged dry weather |
| 38 | HerefordHerefordshire | Low–Moderate | West Midlands | Drought |
| 39 | LincolnLincolnshire | Low–Moderate | Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire | Drought |
| 40 | LiverpoolMerseyside | Low–Moderate | Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Cheshire | Prolonged dry weather |
| 41 | SunderlandTyne and Wear | Low | Northeast | Prolonged dry weather |
| 42 | AberdeenAberdeenshire (Scotland) | Low | Scotland (SEPA) | Not set by the EA |
| 43 | BathSomerset | Low | Wessex | Drought |
| 44 | ExeterDevon | Low | Devon, Cornwall and Isles of Scilly | Drought |
| 45 | PlymouthDevon | Low | Devon, Cornwall and Isles of Scilly | Drought |
| 46 | WinchesterHampshire | Low | Solent and South Downs | Drought |
How we worked this out, and what it does not show
Each city in the UK Subsidence Risk Index is placed at its Ordnance Survey Open Names populated-place point (via postcodes.io) and matched to the Environment Agency public face area that contains that point, using the Environment Agency and Natural England Public Face Areas boundaries. That area's drought status is taken from the Environment Agency's latest weekly dry weather and drought report. Clay bands are unchanged from the index. A city is treated as in drought when the Environment Agency area containing its point is in drought status; this describes regional water and weather conditions, not the ground under any individual property.
- Drought status is about regional rainfall, rivers, groundwater and reservoirs. It is not a measurement of the soil under a particular street or house.
- A city is placed by a single representative point. Greater London spans more than one Environment Agency area. Sampling points across 29 of its 33 boroughs fell in Hertfordshire and North London or Kent and South London; Thames, the only other area that could cover a borough edge, is also in drought.
- Swansea and Aberdeen are in the index but outside England, where Natural Resources Wales and SEPA, not the Environment Agency, assess drought.
- A high clay band means the local geology is susceptible to shrink-swell. It does not mean a given property is moving. Only a survey can tell you that.
For journalists
Use this data in a story
You can quote any figure on this page with attribution to MyPropertyScan and the original source named beside it. City-level lines for local coverage come straight from the table above.
Suggested attribution
MyPropertyScan analysis of British Geological Survey clay shrink-swell data and Environment Agency drought status. Full city data: Subsidence Season 2026.
The underlying clay ranking is on the UK Subsidence Risk Index, and our Press & Data page has contact details for a city breakdown or a methodology walkthrough.
Sources
- Met Office, Summer 2026 provisionally hottest on record for the UK (published 1 September 2026)
- Environment Agency, Dry weather and drought in England: 4 to 10 September 2026 (week of 4 to 10 September 2026)
- Environment Agency, Dry weather and drought in England: 24 to 30 July 2026 (drought first declared)
- Environment Agency, Dry weather and drought in England: 17 to 23 July 2026 (week of 17 to 23 July 2026)
- Association of British Insurers, Average claim for subsidence reaches record £20,000 amidst hot weather (April to June 2026)
Met Office figures are provisional. Drought status can change weekly; this page uses the report for 4 to 10 September 2026.
Related
- Subsidence risk postcode checker: check the ground under a specific address.
- Subsidence risk when buying a house: red flags at a viewing, and what it means for your mortgage and insurance.
How MyPropertyScan produces this guide, and what it is not
Published by MyPropertyScan and written by Ziad Nasr, who is accountable for its accuracy. No page here is written or reviewed by a chartered surveyor, conveyancer or regulated adviser, and we do not claim otherwise.
This page is not:
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Figures and process steps come from the published UK datasets and standards listed on this page, not from professional practice. Pages are updated when source coverage, survey cost assumptions, or lender and legal requirements materially change. Dataset limitations are set out on the methodology page.
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